In the grand tapestry of human history, there exists a fascinating concept known as the “Fourth Turning.” Coined by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe in their 1997 book of the same name, this theory proposes that history follows a cyclical pattern characterized by four distinct generational cycles or “turnings.” Each turning, lasting roughly 20-25 years, is marked by unique social, political, and economic dynamics, shaping the course of events and the collective identity of a society.
The First Turning is known as a “High,” a period of relative stability, civic engagement, and social cohesion. Institutions are strong, and the prevailing mood is one of optimism and unity. People tend to conform to societal norms, and there is a sense of shared purpose. Examples of First Turnings include the post-World War II era and the Roaring Twenties.
The Second Turning is a “Awakening,” characterized by a challenge to the established order. This is a time of cultural upheaval, questioning of authority, and a drive for individualism and self-expression. Institutions come under scrutiny, and there is a growing sense of generational conflict as younger generations challenge the values of their elders. The 1960s and 1970s, with the civil rights movement and countercultural revolution, represent a Second Turning in American history.
The Third Turning is a “Unraveling,” marked by a breakdown of social order and institutions.
Trust in established systems erodes, and society becomes increasingly fragmented.
Individualism and personal freedom are valued, but at the expense of collective responsibility.
The 1990s and early 2000s, with the rise of technology and globalization, are often seen as a Third Turning, characterized by economic prosperity but also growing polarization and cultural division.
Finally, the Fourth Turning is a “Crisis,” a period of intense upheaval and societal transformation. This is when the generational tensions and institutional weaknesses of the previous turnings culminate in a major crisis, often involving war, economic collapse, or other profound challenges. The crisis serves as a crucible that tests the resilience of society, leading to a reevaluation of values, institutions, and priorities. According to Strauss and Howe, this is the time when a new civic order is forged, setting the stage for the next First Turning.
One of the key ideas in the theory of the Fourth Turning is the concept of generational archetypes. Strauss and Howe identified four generational archetypes that repeat in a predictable sequence: Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist. These archetypes play distinct roles in each turning. For example, the Hero generation is often born during a crisis and comes of age as the crisis unfolds. They are seen as the “civic-minded” generation that rallies together to confront the challenges of the era.
While the concept of the Fourth Turning provides a compelling framework for understanding historical cycles, it is essential to recognize that it is not a deterministic or rigid theory. Instead, it offers a lens through which to view history and anticipate potential societal shifts. Critics argue that it may oversimplify the complexity of historical events and that it should be viewed with caution. Furthermore, the theory does not predict specific events but rather suggests patterns and dynamics that may emerge during different phases of the cycle.
As we contemplate the present and future, the theory of the Fourth Turning invites us to reflect on the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. It encourages us to consider how the collective experiences and choices of our generation may shape the course of history. It reminds us that while each turning brings its own trials and tribulations, it also presents the possibility of renewal and transformation.
In recent years, many have speculated whether we are currently in a Fourth Turning, given the global challenges and disruptions we have witnessed. While it is difficult to definitively categorize the times we live in, the theory reminds us of the importance of resilience, unity, and a willingness to confront societal issues head-on. Whether or not we are in a Fourth Turning, the lessons of history and the insights provided by Strauss and Howe encourage us to work together to create a more just, equitable, and sustainable future for generations to come.